Feyenoord vs Fenerbahçe: Over 2.5 Goals @ -167

Match Information

Date: August 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM EST

Venue: De Kuip, Rotterdam (Capacity: 51,177)

Competition: UEFA Champions League Qualification

Current Form: Fenerbahçe enters with better recent form than struggling Feyenoord

Team Form Analysis

Feyenoord (Home)

Recent Form: 3 consecutive losses, 4 matches without a win

Defensive Issues: No clean sheet in last 6 matches

Goal Trends: Under 2.5 goals in 5 of last 7 matches

Key Players: Ayase Ueda, Casper Tengstedt, Quinten Timber

Recent Results:

Last 3 matches: All losses
Both teams scored in 4 of last 5
Failed to score first in recent matches

Fenerbahçe (Away)

Recent Form: Strong attacking performance

Goal Trends: Over 2.5 goals in 7 of last 9 matches

Scoring First: First to score in 4 of last 5 matches

Key Players: Youssef En-Nesyri, Jhon Durán, Cengiz Ünder

Recent Results:

High-scoring matches recently
Consistent goal production
Strong away performance

Head-to-Head Record

3 total matches: Fenerbahçe leads 2-0-1 (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses against Feyenoord)

Statistical Breakdown

0-2-1

Feyenoord H2H record

7/9

Fenerbahçe over 2.5 goals

5/7

Feyenoord under 2.5 goals

4/5

Fenerbahçe scores first

The data shows a clear contrast - Fenerbahçe's high-scoring matches against Feyenoord's low-scoring trend, creating potential value in goal markets.

Key Performance Indicators

Attacking Efficiency: Fenerbahçe significantly outperforming Feyenoord recently
Defensive Stability: Feyenoord struggling with clean sheets
Home/Away Form: Fenerbahçe's strong away scoring record
Recent Motivation: Both teams highly motivated for Champions League qualification

Market Analysis

The betting markets slightly favor Feyenoord as the home team, but our analysis suggests this may not fully account for Fenerbahçe's superior recent form and attacking prowess.

Key Market Insights:

Match Winner: Fenerbahçe offers better value than odds suggest
Goal Markets: Over 2.5 goals at -167 shows value given Fenerbahçe's trends
Both Teams to Score: Yes at -175 reflects Feyenoord's defensive issues
Value Opportunities: Fenerbahçe's scoring consistency not fully priced in

💡 Market Inefficiency Spotted: The market hasn't fully adjusted for Fenerbahçe's scoring consistency against Feyenoord's defensive vulnerabilities.

🎯 Best Value Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

-167 odds

Implied Probability: 62.5% | Estimated Fair Value: 70%

Why This Represents Value

This selection offers strong value because:

Fenerbahçe has seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of last 9 matches (78% rate)
Feyenoord's defense has been conceding regularly (no clean sheets in 6)
4 of last 5 Feyenoord matches saw both teams score
Historical data shows Fenerbahçe's attacking strength against Feyenoord
High-stakes match likely to produce open play

The -167 odds suggest a 62.5% implied probability, but our analysis indicates the actual probability is closer to 70%, creating a 7.5% edge in our favor.

Alternative Considerations

⚠️ Key Injuries/Suspensions:

No significant injury information available in dataset

Secondary Value Opportunities:

Both Teams to Score - Yes: At -175, aligns with Feyenoord's scoring and conceding trends
Fenerbahçe to Score First: Given their 4/5 record of opening scoring
Over 3.5 Goals: At +155 for higher risk/reward play

⚠️ Risk Factors: Feyenoord's home advantage could tighten the match, and qualification matches can sometimes be cagey despite the attacking trends.

Bitcino Agent
Over 2.5 Goals @ -167
WIN
Final Score: 2:1
Confidence Score: 75%

2:1