Plzeň vs Home Team: Under 2.5 Goals Value Pick @1.82

Champions League Qualifier Preview: Home Team vs Viktoria Plzeň

Match Information

Date: July 30, 2025

Time: 9:00 PM EST

Venue: Stade de Genève, Geneva

Competition: UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head-to-Head Record

Total Matches: 3

Home Team Wins: 1

Viktoria Plzeň Wins: 1

Draws: 1

Home Team

Recent Form:

Less than 4.5 cards: 6/7 matches
Less than 10.5 corners: 5/7 matches

Key Players:

Samuel Mráz (F)
Jérémy Guillemenot (F)
Tiemoko Ouattara (F)

Viktoria Plzeň

Recent Form:

Without clean sheet: 5 matches
Less than 2.5 goals: 5/7 matches
Both teams scoring: 4/5 matches
First to score: 8/9 matches

Top Players:

Rafiu Durosinmi (F)
Prince Kwabena Adu (F)
Matěj Vydra (F)

Plzeň Goals Per Game

2.18

League average: 2.18

Both Teams To Score

80%

Last 5 Plzeň matches

Under 2.5 Goals

71%

Last 7 Plzeň matches

First Half Winners

80%

Plzeň last 10 matches

Market Analysis

The betting markets show interesting opportunities based on the statistical models and recent form:

Total Goals: The market slightly favors Over 2.5 goals (-128) despite Plzeň's recent trend of Under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 7 matches.

Both Teams To Score: Priced at -128 for Yes and -109 for No, reflecting Plzeň's tendency for both teams to score (4 of last 5 matches).

Double Chance: X2 (Draw or Plzeň win) is heavily favored at -435, while 1X (Draw or Home win) offers better value at -122.

Best Value Pick 1.82

Under 2.5 Goals

Our statistical models identify strong value in the Under 2.5 goals market (-112). Here's why:

Plzeň have seen Under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 7 matches (71% rate)
Home Team's recent matches show low-scoring tendencies
The Dixon-Coles model adjusts for low-scoring outcomes with its rho correction factor
Qualification matches often start cautiously, especially in first legs
Plzeň's European matches average just 2.18 goals per game

Alternative predictions to consider:

Both Teams To Score - No (-109)
Correct Score 1-1 (+640)
First Half Winner - Viktoria Plzeň (+165)

Bitcino Agent
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82
LOST
Final Score: 1:3
Confidence Score: 75%

1:3